Analysis of recent coronavirus data for different countries and regions

Note: On March 24 the source of the data suddenly changed the format of the tables. I have updated the script to use data from a different source. If you see problems with any of the plots, please let me know.

Table of contents

Updated on Monday 04 May 2020

Author: Javier Moldon

"No matter how much you talk about them or think about them, you will still underestimate exponentials".
Jeremy Howard

General statistics

List of most affected countries

Sorted by highest number of deaths

Deaths Confirmed Recovered Active
Country/Region
United States 68566 (+1175) 1187233 (+27803) 178263 (+17595) 940404 (+9033)
Italy 28884 (+174) 210717 (+1389) 81654 (+1740) 100179 (-525)
United Kingdom 28446 (+315) 186599 (+4339) 0 (+0) 158153 (+4024)
Spain 25264 (+164) 247122 (+1555) 148558 (+2325) 73300 (-934)
France 24895 (+135) 168693 (+297) 50784 (+222) 93014 (-60)
Belgium 7844 (+79) 49906 (+389) 12309 (+98) 29753 (+212)
Brazil 7025 (+275) 101147 (+4588) 42991 (+2054) 51131 (+2259)
Germany 6866 (+54) 165664 (+697) 130600 (+1600) 28198 (-957)
Iran 6203 (+47) 97424 (+976) 78422 (+1072) 12799 (-143)
Netherlands 5056 (+69) 40571 (+335) 0 (+0) 35515 (+266)
China 4633 (+0) 82877 (+2) 77713 (+28) 531 (-26)
Canada 3682 (+116) 59474 (+2760) 24908 (+1107) 30884 (+1537)
Turkey 3397 (+61) 126045 (+1670) 63151 (+4892) 59497 (-3283)
Sweden 2679 (+10) 22317 (+235) 1005 (+0) 18633 (+225)
Mexico 2061 (+89) 22088 (+1349) 13447 (+1070) 6580 (+190)
Switzerland 1762 (+0) 29905 (+88) 24500 (+300) 3643 (-212)
Ecuador 1564 (+193) 29538 (+2074) 3300 (+1168) 24674 (+713)
India 1391 (+68) 42505 (+2806) 11775 (+956) 29339 (+1782)
Ireland 1303 (+17) 21506 (+330) 13386 (+0) 6817 (+313)
Peru 1286 (+86) 45928 (+3394) 13550 (+1116) 31092 (+2192)
Russia 1280 (+58) 134687 (+10633) 16639 (+1626) 116768 (+8949)
Portugal 1043 (+20) 25282 (+92) 1689 (+18) 22550 (+54)
Indonesia 845 (+14) 11192 (+349) 1876 (+211) 8471 (+124)
Romania 790 (+19) 13163 (+431) 4869 (+322) 7504 (+90)
Poland 678 (+14) 13693 (+318) 3945 (+183) 9070 (+121)

Global situation

These plots show the global situation of the countries with higher number of deaths.

Deaths

Confirmed Cases

World (except China)

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 03 May 2020 243459 (+3513) 3479261 (+82694) 1074764 (+45020)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 04 May 2020 239274 ( +2920) 3355372 ( +38504) 1080128 ( +29297)
Tue 05 May 2020 241935 ( +2661) 3390836 ( +35464) 1107921 ( +27793)
Wed 06 May 2020 244355 ( +2419) 3423435 ( +32599) 1134180 ( +26259)
Thu 07 May 2020 246550 ( +2195) 3453346 ( +29911) 1158895 ( +24715)
Fri 08 May 2020 248537 ( +1988) 3480746 ( +27399) 1182072 ( +23177)

China

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 03 May 2020 4633 (+0) 82877 (+2) 77713 (+28)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 04 May 2020 3916 ( +1) 81634 ( +0) 76953 ( +2)
Tue 05 May 2020 3916 ( +1) 81634 ( +0) 76955 ( +1)
Wed 06 May 2020 3917 ( +1) 81634 ( +0) 76956 ( +1)
Thu 07 May 2020 3918 ( +1) 81634 ( +0) 76957 ( +1)
Fri 08 May 2020 3918 ( +1) 81634 ( +0) 76958 ( +1)

Evolution of cases

All plots have the same information. Left: log scale, right: linear scale. Top: number of confirmed cases, deaths, recovered cases and active cases. An exponential or logistic function is fitted to the data and plotted as a line, with the confidence interval covering uncertainties of the fitted parameters of 1-$\sigma$ . Bottom: deaths per day. Active cases is simply confirmed - (deaths + recovered). Also note that the number of confirmations is not homogeneous among countries because it depends on how many tests are done and to what part of the population. Bottom-right: is a zoom to show the correct scale for deaths. The straight line is a fit to a logistic growth when possible. If the fit does not converge (low number of points in early stages) a simple exponential is used. The dashed line is a prediction based on the fit.

Spain

Spain is following Italy's behaviour and we should expect a smooth peak that lasts several days (more than the model predicts). That is because the peak should be sharp for a given population, but countries are the sum of several big cities with different peaks times. Therefore the peak is wider than predicted by the one-population curve fit.

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 03 May 2020 25264 (+164) 247122 (+1555) 148558 (+2325)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 04 May 2020 23999 ( +58) 234309 ( +737) 148230 ( +3655)
Tue 05 May 2020 24050 ( +51) 234962 ( +653) 151722 ( +3491)
Wed 06 May 2020 24094 ( +44) 235540 ( +578) 155046 ( +3324)
Thu 07 May 2020 24132 ( +38) 236052 ( +512) 158200 ( +3154)
Fri 08 May 2020 24165 ( +33) 236504 ( +453) 161185 ( +2985)

Italy

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 03 May 2020 28884 (+174) 210717 (+1389) 81654 (+1740)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 04 May 2020 27689 ( +96) 202098 ( +567) 82695 ( +1951)
Tue 05 May 2020 27775 ( +86) 202608 ( +510) 84570 ( +1875)
Wed 06 May 2020 27852 ( +77) 203067 ( +459) 86367 ( +1797)
Thu 07 May 2020 27921 ( +69) 203479 ( +413) 88084 ( +1717)
Fri 08 May 2020 27982 ( +62) 203850 ( +371) 89720 ( +1637)

United Kingdom

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 03 May 2020 28446 (+315) 186599 (+4339) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 04 May 2020 27776 ( +504) 180059 ( +2118) nan ( +nan)
Tue 05 May 2020 28238 ( +462) 181976 ( +1917) nan ( +nan)
Wed 06 May 2020 28660 ( +422) 183707 ( +1730) nan ( +nan)
Thu 07 May 2020 29044 ( +384) 185265 ( +1559) nan ( +nan)
Fri 08 May 2020 29392 ( +348) 186667 ( +1401) nan ( +nan)

United States

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 03 May 2020 68566 (+1175) 1187233 (+27803) 178263 (+17595)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 04 May 2020 67518 ( +858) 1141575 ( +12679) 182420 ( +6967)
Tue 05 May 2020 68274 ( +756) 1153066 ( +11491) 189035 ( +6615)
Wed 06 May 2020 68939 ( +665) 1163458 ( +10392) 195277 ( +6241)
Thu 07 May 2020 69521 ( +583) 1172837 ( +9379) 201129 ( +5852)
Fri 08 May 2020 70030 ( +509) 1181286 ( +8449) 206585 ( +5456)

France

I think the huge increase of death numbers on April 3 is due to this: France's Coronavirus Death Toll Jumps as Nursing Homes Included. April 2, 2020

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 03 May 2020 24895 (+135) 168693 (+297) 50784 (+222)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 04 May 2020 24343 ( +84) 166324 ( +170) 64849 ( +3160)
Tue 05 May 2020 24414 ( +72) 166467 ( +143) 68171 ( +3322)
Wed 06 May 2020 24476 ( +61) 166587 ( +120) 71663 ( +3492)
Thu 07 May 2020 24528 ( +52) 166688 ( +101) 75333 ( +3671)
Fri 08 May 2020 24572 ( +45) 166772 ( +85) 79192 ( +3859)

Germany

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 03 May 2020 6866 (+54) 165664 (+697) 130600 (+1600)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 04 May 2020 6800 ( +59) 159461 ( +224) 126804 ( +994)
Tue 05 May 2020 6852 ( +52) 159655 ( +194) 127677 ( +873)
Wed 06 May 2020 6898 ( +46) 159823 ( +168) 128442 ( +765)
Thu 07 May 2020 6939 ( +40) 159968 ( +145) 129111 ( +669)
Fri 08 May 2020 6974 ( +35) 160094 ( +126) 129696 ( +585)

Netherlands

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 03 May 2020 5056 (+69) 40571 (+335) 0 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 04 May 2020 4872 ( +31) 40066 ( +216) 160 ( +0)
Tue 05 May 2020 4900 ( +27) 40260 ( +194) 160 ( +0)
Wed 06 May 2020 4923 ( +24) 40434 ( +174) 160 ( +0)
Thu 07 May 2020 4945 ( +21) 40589 ( +155) 160 ( +0)
Fri 08 May 2020 4963 ( +19) 40728 ( +139) 160 ( +0)

Belgium

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 03 May 2020 7844 (+79) 49906 (+389) 12309 (+98)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 04 May 2020 7739 ( +43) 49365 ( +294) 11827 ( +83)
Tue 05 May 2020 7776 ( +37) 49627 ( +262) 11900 ( +73)
Wed 06 May 2020 7807 ( +31) 49860 ( +233) 11965 ( +64)
Thu 07 May 2020 7834 ( +27) 50068 ( +207) 12021 ( +57)
Fri 08 May 2020 7857 ( +23) 50252 ( +184) 12071 ( +50)

Sweden

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 03 May 2020 2679 (+10) 22317 (+235) 1005 (+0)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 04 May 2020 2724 ( +41) 22330 ( +365) 1098 ( +25)
Tue 05 May 2020 2760 ( +36) 22673 ( +342) 1121 ( +23)
Wed 06 May 2020 2793 ( +32) 22993 ( +321) 1142 ( +21)
Thu 07 May 2020 2822 ( +29) 23293 ( +300) 1161 ( +19)
Fri 08 May 2020 2847 ( +26) 23573 ( +280) 1179 ( +18)

Poland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 03 May 2020 678 (+14) 13693 (+318) 3945 (+183)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 04 May 2020 688 ( +13) 13361 ( +144) 4178 ( +227)
Tue 05 May 2020 699 ( +12) 13492 ( +131) 4396 ( +218)
Wed 06 May 2020 710 ( +11) 13610 ( +118) 4603 ( +207)
Thu 07 May 2020 720 ( +10) 13717 ( +107) 4798 ( +195)
Fri 08 May 2020 728 ( +9) 13814 ( +97) 4980 ( +182)

Switzerland

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 03 May 2020 1762 (+0) 29905 (+88) 24500 (+300)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 04 May 2020 1729 ( +7) 28955 ( +19) 23500 ( +103)
Tue 05 May 2020 1735 ( +6) 28971 ( +16) 23588 ( +88)
Wed 06 May 2020 1740 ( +5) 28985 ( +14) 23663 ( +75)
Thu 07 May 2020 1745 ( +5) 28996 ( +12) 23727 ( +64)
Fri 08 May 2020 1749 ( +4) 29006 ( +10) 23782 ( +55)

Brazil

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 03 May 2020 7025 (+275) 101147 (+4588) 42991 (+2054)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 04 May 2020 7483 ( +407) 107312 ( +5928) 38036 ( +243)
Tue 05 May 2020 7887 ( +404) 113335 ( +6023) 38223 ( +188)
Wed 06 May 2020 8287 ( +399) 119427 ( +6092) 38368 ( +144)
Thu 07 May 2020 8679 ( +392) 125561 ( +6134) 38478 ( +111)
Fri 08 May 2020 9061 ( +382) 131708 ( +6148) 38563 ( +85)

Iran

Current today

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Sun 03 May 2020 6203 (+47) 97424 (+976) 78422 (+1072)

5 day prediction

Date (end of) Deaths Confirmed Recovered
Mon 04 May 2020 5956 ( +22) 94746 ( +350) 78528 ( +730)
Tue 05 May 2020 5976 ( +20) 95063 ( +317) 79188 ( +660)
Wed 06 May 2020 5994 ( +18) 95349 ( +287) 79785 ( +596)
Thu 07 May 2020 6010 ( +16) 95609 ( +259) 80322 ( +538)
Fri 08 May 2020 6025 ( +15) 95843 ( +234) 80806 ( +484)

Comparison of different countries

Early onset: China regions

Most of the regions have almost completed the cycle and active cases are disappearing. Note that China Hubei (the original area) has a large number of confirmed cases (70000), but the other regions have very low number of cases, with number around 1200-500 or even less.

Other countries

South Korea has a remarkable recovery rate, with many cases and a reduced number of deaths. Japan growth is moderate, much smaller than in European countries. Iran is showing hints of flattening, although it is curious that the number of recoveries has significantly slowed down while the number of deaths still follow a very exponential trend.